ECONOMIC GROWTH, INFLATION AND EXCHANGE RATES IN NIGERIA (1970-2018)

Abstract

This study examined the effect of inflation on economic growth, it also analysed the effect of exchange rate on economic growth and assessed the degree of responsiveness of economic growth to inflation and exchange rate in Nigeria The study made use of annual time series secondary data. Data on real GDP, inflation rate, exchange rate, gross domestic saving, financial deepening, import, export, foreign direct investment, employment and trade openness were sourced from World Development Indicators (2017), Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin (2018), Penn World Table, version 9.0 (2016). The data collected were analysed using graphs, tables and econometric techniques, particularly, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model. The analysis performed are unit root test, using both Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the Phillip and Perron (PP) test, the lag order of the ARDL models using VAR lag order selection criteria and bound test. The result showed that the variables have a long run relationship with real GDP, some have positive effect on real GDP (exchange rate, gross domestic saving, export and foreign direct investment) and others have a negative effect on real GDP (inflation, financial deepening, import employment and trade openness) and they are all insignificant. The study concluded that inflation and exchange rate are not significant components for any short and long term development plan in Nigeria