Societal And Public Health Measures Against The Effects Of Sars-Cov-2 On The Transmission Dynamics Of Malaria: A Mathematical Modelling Approach

Abstract

ABSTRACT Malaria remains a major global health burden, causing hundreds of thousands deaths annually, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. However, in December 2019, a novel pneumonia-like condition termed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) with several clinical, epidemiological, and biological parallels to malaria, was reported in Wuhan, China. COVID-19 pandemic led to inaccessibility to healthcare services due to societal measures which subsequently could increase malaria morbidities, comorbidities with COVID-19 and mortalities. This study therefore aimed at investigating the effects of city lockdowns and chemotherapeutic impacts on the dynamical system of human and mosquito populations. The percentage increase in malaria mortalities as a result of inaccessibility to healthcare services was also quantified. Firstly, the basic reproduction number was computed. The stability of the system is analyzed for the existence of the disease-free and endemic equilibria points. We established that the disease-free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable when the reproduction number, R0 < 1 and the disease always dies out. For R0 > 1 the disease-free equilibrium becomes unstable and the disease continues to persist in the population. Furthermore, the parameters most responsible for the disease transmission in the populations with respect to R0 by sensitivity analysis showed that deaths due to malaria increased by 10% in endemic malaria countries during lockdown (i.e year 2020 alone). This suggests that more concerted efforts are required to concurrently monitor the two diseases. Notably, malaria and COVID-19 screening and testing of suspected or confirmed COVID-19 patients could be done simultaneously to avoid misdiagnosis and enable easy management. Maintaining the most critical prevention activities, long-term suppression intervention and accessibility to healthcare services for malaria during lockdowns could substantially reduce the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria. Keyword: mathematical model, Lockdown, Malaria, COVID-19, Stability