MODELLING THE TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF MALARIA USING SEIRS MODEL

Abstract

Several mathematical and statistical models have been used to describe the features involved in the transmission of malaria. However malaria still remains the most widespread and life-threatening disease among the known vector-borne diseases. In this work, an SEIR model is adapted to capture the basic features regarding the dynamics of malaria. We obtain the basic reproduction number (R0) and use it to establish the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium. The parameters most responsible for the disease transmission in the population are examined with respect to the basic reproduction number by sensitivity analysis. The disease-free equilibrium is found to be locally asymptotically stable if R0 < 1 and unstable if R0 > 1. Numerical simulations are carried out to validate the theoretical results and to further investigate the dynamics of the disease