POPULATION, UNEMPLOYMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA (1970-2019)

Abstract

This study examines the trend analysis of population growth, unemployment and economic growth in Nigeria, impact of population growth on unemployment, it also analyzed the effect of population growth and unemployment on economic growth in Nigeria. The study made use of annual time series secondary data .Data on population growth proxy as total population, unemployment, economic growth proxy as real GDP, consumer price index proxy as consumer price index growth, exports of goods and services, foreign direct investment, inflation, interest rate and government expenditure were sourced from World Development Indicators(2020), Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin (2020),Penns World Table, version 9.0(2020).The data collected were analyzed using graphs and econometric techniques, particularly, Autoregressive Distributed Lag(ARDL) Model. The analysis performed were unit root test, using both Augmented Dickey-Fuller) test and the Phillip and Perron (PP) test, the lag order of the ARDL, models using VAR lag order selection criteria and bound test. The analysis of the trend shows that population is positively related to unemployment, population growth and unemployment has positive and negative trend on economic growth respectively. The result showed that population growth is positive and statistically significant to unemployment at long run but negative and statistically insignificant at short run. Also, for objective three, population growth is positive and statistically significant in long run and negative but statistically significant at short run while unemployment has a negative and insignificant effect on economic growth at long run while it has a positive and insignificant effect on economic growth at short run. The study concluded that population growth is a significant component for any short-term and long-term development plan in Nigeria.